ะŸะพัั‚ั‹ ั ั‚ัะณะพะผ: evaluating ideas

Yes, There is Such a Thing as an Ugly Baby

Published date: November 23, 2015 ะฒ 12:48 pm

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Imagine youโ€™re working on a new initiative, and you come up with a great idea. You do some research on it, and you find some really good evidence to support your point-of-view. You think to yourself, โ€œThe team is going to love this.โ€ So you go to your boss to pitch the idea.
But the boss seems skeptical. So she asks you to go out and do a some more research on it. Youโ€™re convinced this is a winner, so you go out and get a lot more data to support your case.
Along the way, you run across a few things that suggest that maybe itโ€™s not such a great idea. But you ignore it because there is so much data in favor of your idea. You rationalize the negative information to minimize it โ€“ perhaps the source is not credible, or their situation was different. You just donโ€™t much much value in it.
You go back to your boss and present all the positive evidence. You either leave out or barely mention the negative data that goes against your argument. And in doing so, you have just committed a cognitive error that can lead to poor judgments โ€“ The Confirmation Bias.
Confirmation bias is the tendency for people to only seek out information that conforms to their pre-existing viewpoints, and subsequently ignore information that goes against them. You overweight the good news, and underweight the bad news.
In some cases, you look for information to justify the decision you are already planning to make. This happens a lot in job interviews. Imagine youโ€™re interviewing a candidate for a job. You think the candidate is a good fit, so you ask questions that allow the candidate to present himself in a positive light. If you know you wonโ€™t hire the candidate, you tend to ask questions that force the candidate to focus on his or her deficiencies. That is confirmation bias, and most of the time, youโ€™re not even aware that you are doing it.
You would think that the availability of mountains of information could protect you from the confirmation bias. The problem is there is so much information that we have to make choices. We have a strong tendency to select according to what we believe.
Itโ€™s not hard to see why confirmation bias can lead to bad decisions. If we donโ€™t gather a fair balance of information, we donโ€™t give ourselves a complete and objective view of the situation. You increase the chances of being wrong.
By the way, when you share all the evidence with your, positive and negative, it actually strengthens, not weakens your case.
Confirmation bias is something all humans have. But just being aware of it isnโ€™t good enough to prevent you from it. You canโ€™t get rid of it, but there are things you can do to mitigate its effects and make better judgments.
To avoid confirmation bias, keep these pointers in mind:

  • List out the reasons that support your case. Then, imagine each one of them is wrong. Ask, how would it affect your decision. Take your strongest arguments and go find evidence that disproves them.
  • Get help from colleagues in finding evidence. Ask one colleague to find only positive evidence. Ask another colleague to find only negative evidence. This will help give you balance.
  • Find someone to act as a โ€œdissenting voice of reason.โ€ Present all the evidence you have and let them challenge you. That way youโ€™ll be confronted with a contrary viewpoint to examine.
  • Frame opportunities in a way that forces you to find ways of disproving your hypothesis. Instead of saying, โ€œletโ€™s find reasons why this initiative will work,โ€ frame it this way: โ€œLetโ€™s find reasons why this initiative wonโ€™t work.โ€

 
 

Filtering Ideas to Find the Very Best Ones

The SIT Method is designed to help you generate lots of ideas in a systematic way. But how do you select which ideas to pursue? Filtering ideas is an essential part of the creativity process. You want to make sure you spend your time only on those with the most potential.

First, put all your ideas in a standard format. Thatโ€™ll make it a lot easier to evaluate them. I like to use a template like this:

  • Name of Idea:
  • Description of Idea:
  • Benefits:
  • Target Audience:
  • Challenges:

Every idea should have its own name, not just a number. Give it a name that will help people see what the idea is about. Use literal names, not vague or confusing ones.

Next, put every idea into one of three categories. The first category is for those ideas that are a bit far out, perhaps borderline crazy. Theyโ€™re novel, but they may not be feasible.

The second category is for those ideas that are just the opposite. Theyโ€™re not wild at all. Theyโ€™re incremental improvements.

The third category is for ideas in the middle โ€“ not too far out and not too near in. Theyโ€™re in a special zone we call the sweet spot. Theyโ€™re viable and creative. Itโ€™s these ideas that people get excited about.

But weโ€™re not done yet. Once you put the ideas in these categories, look at ways to get more of them into the sweet spot. Here is what I suggest you do. Start with the far out ideas. Is there a way to pull them back in, take out some of the weirdness of the idea to make it more feasible? What if you eliminated an exotic feature of the idea but still retained the essence of what the concept is trying to do? That might eliminate some of the riskiness of the idea.

For those incremental ideas, find a way to push them out and add some novelty. For example, what if you used Task Unification to have one of the components doing an additional task? Or what if you applied Attribute Dependency to the concept to make it smart and adaptive? That would certainly add some novelty and push it closer to the sweet spot.

After this exercise, youโ€™re ready to start evaluating your list of ideas. There are two ways to do this. One is very simple and informal. You ask a group of people to vote on the ideas. You have probably seen the so-called dot method. Hereโ€™s how it works.

First, let the group read the entire list of ideas with all the benefits and challenges. Then, each participant is given a number of small, sticky colored dots. Theyโ€™re instructed to place these dots on the ideas they think are best. I usually have participants place these right onto the paper with the list of ideas. This keeps the voting anonymous and makes it more objective. Then, collect all the votes and tally them up. While it may sound overly simple, the dot method of voting has a lot of benefits. Each individual has their own biases of what makes a great idea, and they vote accordingly. But voting as a group tends to neutralize those individual biases. Many times, the group vote will tell you which ideas the company will prefer.

The other method is more formal and quantitative. First, create a scorecard by listing the four or five most important criteria for judging good ideas. Criteria might include how novel the idea is, how useful it is for your customer, how viable the idea is to implement, and perhaps how risky the idea is. For each criterion, use a rating scale of 1 to 4 where a 4 is highest and 1 is lowest. Donโ€™t use odd number scales like 1 to 5 because people may have a tendency to overuse the middle of the scale and rate too many ideas a 3. You want to force their ratings to be on one side or the other.

Ask people to use the scorecard and rate each idea. Then, using a tool like Excel, put the data in a spreadsheet so you can calculate the averages of all raters. Add up the final score for each idea.

  • Novelty 4
  • Usefulness 3
  • Viability 3
  • Risk 2
  • Final Score 12

The ideas with the highest scores are your best ideas assuming you selected the right criteria. This approach takes more time, but it gives you more precision especially when evaluating a large pool of ideas.

True innovators generate great ideas, but they also use the wisdom of others to help evaluate them.

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